Are RBs or WRs More Flexy?

You’re on the clock in round 6 in your draft. You’ve drafted two top 20 RBs, you have 2 solid WRs and you were able to get a value at QB when Josh Allen dropped into the 3rd round, and now you have a decision to make! The top 6 TE are off the board, so you decide to wait and take a TE late in the draft and you’re looking at a bunch of RBs and WRs that will play in your flex spot. How do you choose?

I took a look at the data from last year for each week and determined how the RB24 and the WR24 scored each week, trying to determine if you should lean WR or RB in the middle rounds. My assumption was that WR2’s and WR3’s have more value than RB2’s or RB3’s, and I think the data supports that for 0.5 PPR. Let’s take a look.

Last year, you could expect to average 10.4 FPPG from the RB24. The median RB24 score, however, was only 10.1 FPPG (meaning half the time RB24 scored more than 10.1 and half the time he scored less). This means that you were more likely to score less than that 10.4 average in a random week as RB24. In fact, in 10 of the 17 weeks, the RB24 scored less than the 10.4 average. The lowest score for any week was 8 points and the highest was 12.9 points per game.

For WR24 however, you could expect to average 12.2 FPPG with a median score of 12.4 FPPG. 10 of the 17 weeks saw the WR24 outpace the 12.2 FPPG average for the season. Just looking at the average and median, this clearly supports that WRs that are scoring in the WR2 range outperform RBs that score in the RB2 range, making them better flex plays.

Last year, 34 wide receivers scored more than 10.1 FPPG while only 32 RB scored more than 10.1 FPPG on average. Of those 32, 8 played fewer than 12 games (all due to injury), while 5 of 34 WR played fewer than 12 games (only 2 due to injury, 3 were fluky - Ridley, Antonio Brown, Ruggs). This seems to support the likelihood that WR will outscore RB, but also that they are less likely to succumb to injury than RBs.

After looking at the data, you feel confident - you’re taking the big value at WR and not looking back! You almost feel like the WR you just drafted might outscore your RB2, and you might be right!

This is one such scenario where knowing the data can help you make an informed decision. All drafts are different and you should always try to draft for value when you can. In this same scenario, you might notice a RB that you have ranked in your top 15 at the position has fallen and the available WRs rank in the low 20’s. In that case, taking the RB makes sense! As always, be flexible and create a roster that has high upside, and let the draft come to you. Knowing the data can help you make this decision a little easier.

Be sure to check out my next post comparing WR3 to RB2 and how deep you can expect WR to outperform RB.

- Chris